ANTIPREDICTIONS 2022+: towards the loss of the future?
Sep 03, 2022
A deep economic crisis, a worldwide pandemic, and the start of a new world war in Ukraine: The last few years have seen dramatic events unfold. And even darker times seem to await us, with many investment firms now expecting an upcoming financial "hurricane". At the dawn of a worrying 202x decade, what does the future hold for us?
At each significant turning point, large international organizations such as the US National Intelligence Council (NIC), the OECD, and the EU provide us with their strategic predictions for the future. While their forecasts are often driven by political agendas and tainted by geopolitical bias, most have painted out in their latest issues an ultimately positive outlook for tomorrow: An “end of history” and the rise of universal democracy.
Looking back at what is actually happening in these years, the exercise may seem now more perilous than expected. A few years ago, which of these official intelligence bodies could have imagined trillions of dollars of quantitative easing and helicopter money dumped by central banks since 2009 to save the economy from a 1929-like crash, threatening the world monetary systems? Entire countries frozen in periodic lockdowns since 2020, leading to a disruptive ‘new normal’ way of life? A brutal high intensity war bursting in 2022 on the doorsteps of Europe?
For sure, most prospective studies have already underlined the risks of disasters. Pandemics were even highlighted as the first global risk by NIC’s “Global trends 2030” report (1), ten years ago. But, up the now, the prospective zeitgeist had been predominantly optimistic, presenting dark scenarios mostly to justify international programs in domains ranging from climate change and population health up to democracy building. The “world in 2050’ collective vision from 26 international experts led by former IMF director Michel Camdessus (2) is a strong example of the overall positive outlook that prevailed in the previous decades.
Yet, for those who looked under the surface of events and studied the weak signals that rose in economic statistics, like troubled bubbles emerging from the depths to the apparently calm surface of a lake, it was hard not to see worrying signals already multiplying for years, pointing to a deep looming crisis.
Underneath rosy forecasts, more worrisome signals have been indeed ramping up for decades, highlighting the rise of inequalities, the reach of resource peaks, diverging demographic transitions, and the acceleration of economic disruptions. All resulting in increasing social fragmentation, notably in developed countries. For example, half of the US population lives on credit, 40% with less than $1,000 in their bank account and 20% depend on food stamps. A revealing sign of western societies’ middle class losing ground in our globalized world, crushed between offshore and traditional employments destruction by digital automation, as coined by the economist Branko Milanovic in his ‘Elephant Curve” (3).
All are exacerbating a global feeling of discontent and ramping social crises, with major waves of populist movements in recent years, such as the Brexit vote in the UK, Trump’s election in the US or the ‘Yellow Jackets’ move in France. Half of the European population estimates that their children will be poorer than they are and that the future will be worse than the past. A trend that the 2020 IPSOS global opinion survey (4) coined as “THE LOSS OF THE FUTURE”!
What does it mean for us? For decades, the global trends of progress have made us believe in a linear course of history. A continuous path to prosperity, sometimes disturbed by bumps, discontinuities and accidents along the road, but leading irrevocably to a generalization of progress. Under this nice storytelling, this may have made us forget that HISTORY IS NOT LINEAR BUT PUNCTUATED. Marked by brutal cliffs. Alternating long periods of stability and sudden periods of disruptions that shuffle all the cards.
Looking at the underlying megatrends, we are definitively are at one of these defining moments in time.
How to handle this change of paradigm? How to correctly approach the 202x decade, and clearly foresee the path of change and the new keys to success in a fast-transforming world? Rather than make the usual list of predictions - an easy exercise that often falls short in an accelerating chaotic world - why not express ANTI-PREDICTIONS? And acknowledge what the future may NOT be: a calm pursuit to global prosperity. Acknowledge that we have entered deeply disruptive times that will definitively challenge our thinking and old ways to progress. Acknowledge that we are at a turning point in time where the world we have known for decades is on the brink of radical change, in the wake of a GLOBAL TRANSITION CRISIS.
A transition to a new world marked by dramatic technological accelerations and dramatic economic and social disruptions, leading to significant changes in our business and geopolitical environment.
This may challenge our traditional ways of managing our future. It may expose us to new perils. It may also bring new promises. Interestingly, paleontology and Darwinian evolutionary history show that the conditions for success are completely different from time to time. In periods of stability, optimization is key. In periods of disruption, it is agility that prevails. Those who may not have been the best adapted yet but are flexible and open enough to adapt to new environments are the ones who do thrive. As in great extinction periods, which have seen entire powerful species nearly wiped out from the surface of the earth, while weak but agile ones have leveraged the chaos to prosper.
Today, this may be an inspiration for organizations, businesses, and individuals as well.
How to adapt to these changing times and avoid the fate of a great extinction? How to reinvent new ways to operate, do business, connect, prosper, and contribute? How to not just survive but thrive? These will be the major concerns in the years to come.
This will be the aim of futuremastery, a strategic intelligence consultancy aimed at researching the best insights, methods, and tools to navigate in these uncertain times, get the most out of disruptions, and help us cross the Global Transition Crisis to a safe haven.
We will start in the coming weeks with a series of posts exploring the state of the present and the historical mechanisms at stake, based on the latest analysis of social dynamics, the probable options for the future, the different paths that are open to us, and how to leverage them.
To get a glimpse of the things to come, you can:
- Download right now the free simple guide to the future
- And freely subscribe to this blog, which will detail and strongly expand the thinking developed in the guide, and progressively provide resources and insights from research.
Frightening and also fascinating times are in front of us.
In a changing world, it’s time for organizations, businesses, and individuals to take back control of their future!
The next post in this initial "Global Transition Crisis" series - ESCAPE VELOCITY - will be published next week. Click here to subscribe >
(1) The National Intelligence Council bridges the US Intelligence Community (CIA, NSA, etc.) with policy makers. Its "Global Trends" reports, published every four years, is a strategic assessment of the key trends that might shape the world over the next two decades. More https://www.dni.gov
(2) “The World in 2050: Striving for a More Just, Prosperous, and Harmonious Global Community” is an analytical exploration of the future of the global economy and its societies, initiated by the Emerging Markets Forum and the Centennial Group.
(3) The "Elephant Curve" also known as the Lakner-Milanovic graph, illustrates the unequal distribution of income growth during the last decades of globalization. The graph highlights the source of middle-class discontent in advanced economies and the rise of populism. More: https://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/global-income-distribution-fall-berlin-wall-great-recession
(4) IPSOS "Global Trends" report polls each year the public in 25 countries around the world, ranging from developed countries to emerging markets in Asia and Africa. More https://www.ipsos.com
