CHAOS IS A LADDER: Towards Antifragility?

As history has shown, species that fail to adapt to changing conditions are ultimately wiped out. This raises an often unforeseen but implacable question: Is a new evolutionary holocaust coming with the impending global transition crisis?

In the Permian extinction event 250 million years ago, nearly 80% of species disappeared. At a milder cultural level, humanity also experienced dramatic shifts, moving from the tribal era to the agricultural era and then to the industrial era. Today, we are witnessing accelerated creative destruction as we transition from an industrial to a digital society.

In the seventies, 40% of the Top 500 companies were displaced each decade. During this 2020>2030 decade, it is estimated this number will rise to 90%. In the coming years, will we encounter transformations at a speed and scale unprecedented in history?

During previous turnings, except for catastrophic events such as the meteorite crash that changed Earth’s climate in the Cretaceous (and wiped out most of the dinosaurs), species had millennia to adapt. During industrial transitions, we had generations to adapt. Now, the accelerated pace of change means we may have to adapt in less than a lifetime, both collectively and individually.

How will we face a future where, in a few years, many jobs may be automated, and 60% significantly transformed by Generative AI? When the cognitive spectrum between people may dramatically widen? When the lifespan gap between winners and victims could expand as never before? With all this contributing to a widening wealth gap unprecedented in history.

In such disruptive times, how can we not just survive, but thrive?

Two decades ago, financial investor Nassim Nicholas Taleb coined a powerful strategic concept to successfully face such times: antifragility.

In Western philosophy, enduring an adverse environment has traditionally called for robustness: the ability to face hard times and contrarian forces, in opposition to fragility and breaking under stress. Conversely, Eastern philosophies praise flexibility—the ability to adapt to events and bend before returning to the initial state.

Yet, as remarked by Nicholas Taleb, is robustness or flexibility the true opposite of fragility? Shouldn’t it rather be “antifragility”: not just the ability to resist hard times or be resilient, but to truly profit from them?

With the concept of antifragility, chaos is not just an adverse event; it is an opportunity to thrive. In any shock lie new opportunities. Rather than lamenting what is now impossible, why not consider the new possibilities that are emerging?

This may be the fundamental question we should ask ourselves in each crisis: What do disruptive events now make possible that were impossible before?

Which new businesses may rise from disaster? Which new communities may appear? Are new ways of living attainable?

As the old saying goes: ‘Never waste the occasion of a good crisis!’

This may call for making small optional investments that may prove highly profitable when the crisis hits. This is what Nassim Nicholas Taleb labels ‘barbell strategies.’ This was the approach he favored as a financial investor, making him rich during the 2008 financial crisis.

This also calls for the capability to rapidly detect changing patterns, determine the best way to succeed, and take initiatives to profit from it, building the mindset to thrive, whatever the circumstance

Interestingly, this aligns with the recent evolution of corporate strategy frameworks. Analyzing how new business models and strategies unfold in an increasingly complex and uncertain world reveals two main axes to consider: market unpredictability (do end-customer needs evolve in a predictable way or not?) and ecosystem malleability (can we shape the supplier ecosystem or not?)—two key dynamics of change. The three traditional enterprise strategies—excellence in operations, excellence in customer experience, and excellence in innovation—map seamlessly into this framework. A fourth ultimate strategy, ecosystem orchestration, combines all three and positions itself as the ultimate best practice. It is this fourth model that is, not surprisingly, leveraged by the largest digital corporations and behemoths today.

So, how can we not just survive but thrive in the coming global transition crisis? As coined by the Red Queen in “Alice in Wonderland,” it requires, of course, “running faster” than our environment. But that is not enough. It demands more:
- It requires not being afraid of disorder and excelling in leveraging it.
- It requires favoring openness and diversity of expertise over hyper-specialization.
- It requires knowing how to bet on the unexpected.
- And above all, it requires an open mindset to take control of the future, rather than being driven by it.

‘What does not kill me makes me stronger.’ Never has Nietzsche’s famous saying been more of a roadmap for our times, where the pace of change accelerates at an unprecedented level. To face the rise of hyper-automation, the emergence of general artificial intelligence, the possible changing lifespan of a part of humanity, and the race to space, antifragility will not just be a matter of progress. It may be a matter of survival.

Fortunately, living organisms have been designed to do this for billions of years, even if the time and scale of this evolution are unprecedented.

The complex times we face may be daunting, but they can also be exciting. As the saying goes, ‘Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And weak men create hard times.’

We have hard times in front of us. It’s up to us to become strong and create good times again!

The final post in this initial 'Global Transition Crisis' series, "THE DAY AFTER" will be published mid September. It will summarize the series with an analysis of what may lie ahead in the coming decades. Click here to subscribe >

'CHAOS IS A LADDER' is the twelfth post in our 'Global Transition Crisis' series. The previous posts of this series, 'ANTI-PREDICTIONS 202x+", "ESCAPE VELOCITY", "GREAT RESET", "DEJA VU", "HISTORY'S FORMULA", "UNCHARTED TERRITORY", "ESCAPING FROM ZOMBIELAND", "10x MOONSHOTS", "META HUMANS", "UNIVERSE 25" and "THE UNCANNY VALLEY" can be found here >

 _{(1) This was notably highlighted in BCG's 2015 book, ‘Your Strategy Needs a Strategy’, which aligns its approach with digital strategy frameworks and introduces an additional 'renewal' model to address sustainability concerns. The above diagram is partially inspired by it. In its 2018 book, ‘Beyond the Hockey Stick’, McKinsey also emphasizes the growing importance of digital in value creation. Interestingly, the Generative AI revolution may accelerate this change, bringing the concept of the “autonomous business” to the forefront and promising further disruptions. We are currently studying this and will delve deeper into it in future posts and research through the end of 2024 and into 2025.}