The 10th Man Principle: Anticipating the Unthinkable
Oct 03, 2024
Crises have this in common: millenarian theories thrive.
It's a natural tendency of the human mind—when faced with a troubled world, the fear of loss outweighs the will to win.
This sometimes sparks extreme social movements, as seen in periods of chaotic transition. We witnessed this during the fall of the Roman Empire, with the flourishing of extremist Christian sects. It was also evident during the witch hunts of the 16th century, fueled by famines, epidemics, and the wars of the Reformation.
As we highlighted in "Zombieland: The Temptation of Despair", our current era is no exception to this rule: amid the societal polycrisis that the West navigates, fears are multiplying. Many—the claimants—take refuge in the demands and nostalgia of a bygone past. Some—the survivalists—engage in self-destructive behavior. A few—the dreamers—try to escape into fantasy. And while the utopians and the majority seem to continue as if nothing has happened and may appear passive, they are no less affected by a diffuse, underlying anxiety.
How should we prepare for chaotic times?
Disaster movies often feature a recurring character: the one who sees everything before anyone else.
Generally well-integrated, living within a close-knit community, these characters are the first to recognize, in a fortuitous moment, that the world is about to tip over. A defining moment when the comforting facade of reality shatters, revealing hidden cracks beneath the surface. A whole unsuspected world that finally comes to light beneath the seemingly stable appearance…
But when they start to speak, they quickly encounter skepticism, even hostility, from those around them. Considered excessive or even disturbed, they are soon ostracized—until the dreaded disaster finally strikes.
As risks multiply, are there such visionaries around?
Survivalists, radical environmentalists, woke activists, New Age gurus—we’re not short of zealots. Extremist movements have never been so numerous. But does this mean we should build our own “self-sustaining base,” refuse to have children, commit social suicide, or get lost in the illusion of parallel realities?
Can we find a middle ground between sleepwalking and extremism?
In a recent emblematic disaster film, "World War Z", the screenwriter offers an interesting answer: never give in to the complacency of consensus, but always have a devil’s advocate in every group—the “10th man.” The one who, despite overwhelming consensus among the other nine, remains ready to listen to weak signals and, if necessary, take appropriate precautionary measures.
It is in this way that, in the film, faced with a deadly pandemic, only Jerusalem temporarily resists the chaos and collapse of the world, thanks to the prudent foresight of a “10th man” from the intelligence services.
Do we have such “10th men” among us?
Thousands, surely, scattered all around us:
- Government analysts keen not to fall into the trap of collective psychoses or their own narratives.
- Visionary business strategists striving to identify the true key trends that will shape tomorrow’s world.
- Ambitious entrepreneurs seeking to discern both the dangers and opportunities that lie ahead.
- Members of non-governmental organizations eager to lead the world toward a truly sustainable future.
People hidden within the indifferent mass of a society slowly heading toward the breaking point.
Are we ready to listen to them? To tune in amid the sleepwalkers and the chaotic clamor of the deranged, the crooks, and the mad, and join the rank of pragmatic pioneers?
When the breaking point is reached, we’ll surely need to recognize and heed them quickly...
