UNCHARTED TERRITORY: can we master our future?

Humanity has had a dream for millennia: what if we could master our fate? What if we could achieve the ambition of magicians, prophets, and scientists to be able to predict the future and take control of our destiny?

With all the unanswered questions arising. What would remain of free will? Would we be bound to follow a predestined path? What would be our margin of maneuver in a world where every move could be calculated, forecasted, and then controlled or prevented?

Yet, could this old dream now be genuinely within reach thanks to the new science of Cliodynamics (1)?

This new science, developed by pioneering academic researchers since the beginning of the 21st century, leverages millennia of data and analysis models that have already provided staggering results to detect recurring patterns and trends in history. With spectacular predictive accuracy in backtests on the rise and fall of states, empires, and civilizations. Making sense of the current megatrends into actionable prospective thinking.

If we look at the Cliodynamics models, what does the future hold?

The trends are unequivocal: we have entered into the disintegrative period of the secular cycle, notably for the western world. A period typically marked by demographic decline, factionalization and corruption, high inequality and social instability, epidemics, riots, public bankruptcies, and endemic religious and civil conflicts. All this led in the past to wars or migratory invasions from more vitalist countries. 

These crisis times often culminate in a temporary Caesarist period. Before a final collapse and depression, often marked by dramatic population decline and social despair. Until a new cycle begins. From a new nucleus of the same civilization if it has kept enough vitality to rise from its ashes in a new form. Or from another one, supplanting a moribund civilization whose time has passed and which may only partly survive as echoes and shadows of its past splendor. As history has shown, civilizations are also mortals!

If we look at the complementary Strauss-Howe (2) generational cycle models, predictions are no more reassuring. The paroxysm of the generational crisis we have been in since 2009 is predictably bound to culminate in the coming 2 to 3 years. A period typically marked by a rise of violence, deep economic chaos, and often global war. Until some new equilibrium may be found.

This will be followed by a reconstruction period that may start around 2029, enabling us to pass the great transition crisis and truly enter a new cycle, probably coinciding with the beginning of the 5th age, initiated by the biotech and neurotech revolution.

Then, a new generation of “Prophets” may begin to challenge the new order after 2049. Society will then start to slowly disaggregate after 2069 and beyond. And a new crisis period may burst at the end of the 21st century.

All this should happen in a context of continuous global tensions and conflicts until the end of the century, as we will be within the disintegrative period of the secular Cliodynamics cycle. These tensions and conflicts will be certainly heightened by dramatic worldwide challenges - notably, the uncontrolled explosion of Middle-East and African demography, which will probably outpace regional development capabilities. With worldwide energy and primary resource rarefaction adding to the turmoil on the long-term horizon.

Will events follow this theoretical model, as in the timeline shown below?

Nothing is certain, and dates are just possible milestones, giving an approximative timeframe rather than a precise forecast. However, the current pace of events does not mitigate this concerning foresight from multiple perspectives:

• Financially, we enter the final crisis phase of the economic Ponzi schemes ramping up since 2009, as highlighted by world-class experts such as the leading hedge-fund guru Ray Dalio (2).
• Sociologically, with western civilization being on the edge of decay, desegregating into multiple factions, polarized moves, and ramping social troubles, as highlighted for years by multiple sociologists, seeing the emergence of a liquid society, its fragmentation into diverging sociological archipelagos, and predicting the advent of an ‘age of uprisings’ (3).
• Geopolitically, with the risk of Thucydides’ trap (4) between the US hegemon and its multipolar challengers, notably China, an arc of crises expanding from the Middle East to the Balkans and Taiwan, plus the NATO-Russia war in Ukraine, where the possible usage of nuclear weapons begins to be considered.

All that leads to a worrying foresight scenario.

Are these dark prospects inevitable? Could decision makers, in the face of clear historical patterns, make sound decisions to navigate away from perils and conduct us to safe heaven?

History, unfortunately, shows that obvious alerts are rarely addressed at the time and scale needed. As already highlighted by Asimov in his “Foundation” novel series, humanity develops in cycles. And the periodic descent to hell is an inevitable tribute to the progressive rise to heaven. In crisis times, the human masses are usually overtaken by events. All we can do individually is go with the flow and manage to stay afloat.

So what can we do?

- Patiently prepare to face and survive the dark times?

- Retreat and create a foundation to preserve the future?

- Get politically involved to try to weigh in on the positive outcome of events?

As usual, there can not be only one response. Life is an infinite spectrum of possibilities, between which each individual and organization must make their own choice.

But overall, instead of trying unsuccessfully to stop the flood, shouldn’t we rather try to precisely foresee its course and evaluate all possible scenarios in order to better adapt and ride the waves of change?

For that, foresight models can provide us with invaluable help, as weather forecasting does in meteorology. With our current technologies, we can not yet fully govern the weather. But we can foresee when cloudy skies will appear and where risks of a storm will be maximal. Even if they depend on such an infinity of variables, and if it’s very difficult to predict months ago when and where the tempest will exactly hit and at which level. And even if small, unexpected butterfly effects may deviate at the last minute the final course of events as in catastrophe theory.

In a way, however, foresight models offer us a better perspective than a predestined path; they can help us navigate toward the best of the future. Even at the edge of chaos, there may be incredible opportunities.

The key question we should ask ourselves at the heart of disasters is not “what does the crisis prevent us from doing?” It should rather be “which new opportunities could open to us now?” and “which unexpected gift may hide behind the mask of misfortune?" As the old saying goes: “the darker the night, the closer the dawn.”

In a sense, this shows us that destiny exists but that we are not condemned to it.

Individually, we still have an absolute margin of maneuver.

The ultimate question is: what will we do with it? Follow its dark or its bright side?

Only we can tell. And it will be soon the moment when we will be called upon to choose…

The next post in this initial 'Global Transition Crisis' series will be published in a few weeks. Click here to subscribe >

UNCHARTED TERRITORY' is the sixth post of our 'Global Transition Crisis' series. The previous posts of this series, 'ANTI-PREDICTIONS 2022+", "ESCAPE VELOCITY", "GREAT RESET", "DEJA VU" and "HISTORY'S FORMULA" can be found here >   

_{(1) Cliodynamics (from “Clio”, the muse of history) leverages the structural-demographic theory mathematical modeling to the social sciences in general and to the study of historical dynamics in particular. It studies the rise and fall of empires, population booms and busts, the spread and disappearance of religions, and the outbreaks of political instability in complex societies. The term was originally coined by Peter Turchin in 2003. The Cliodynamics theory and its applications to our times are covered in our previous post: “HISTORY’S FORMULA: is it time for psychohistory?”}

_{(2) The Strauss–Howe generational theory has been devised by two public consultants and sociology researchers, William Strauss and Neil Howe, in their famous book published in 1997, “The 4th turning. According to their theory, historical events are associated with recurring generation cycles. The Strauss-Howe theory and its applications to our times are covered in our previous post: “DÉJÀ VU: is our past our future?”}

_{(3) Ray Dalio is the founder of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates. In his book “Principles for dealing with the changing world order - why nations succeed and fail”, he puts into perspective “Big Cycles” driving the successes and failures of the world’s major empires - including the Dutch, the British, and the American - over the last 500 years. He ultimately predicts the fall of the reserve currency status of the dollar and a probable US-China war in this decade. More: https://www.principles.com}

_{(4) Thucydides’ Trap is a term popularized by American political scientist Graham T. Allison to describe an apparent tendency toward war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as a regional or international hegemon. It is primarily used to describe a potential conflict between the United States and the People's Republic of China. The term is based on a quotation of ancient Athenian historian and military general Thucydides, in which he posited that the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta had been inevitable because of Spartan fears of the growth of Athenian power.}

_{(5) These themes have been coined respectively by Polish sociologist Zygmunt Bauman with his “Liquid life” theory, European opinion polling expert Jerome Fourquet with his multiple essays on politics, and French philosopher Michel Maffesoli , famous for his theory on “The time of the tribes” and his latest book “The age of uprisings”.}