What Doesn’t Kill Us: The 5 Stages of Collapse

"What does not kill us makes us stronger." Nietzsche’s quote has always been seen as a triumph of will. Paradoxically, we often forget one key thing: we still have to avoid getting killed...

Civilizations, like humans, are mortal.

How many great names, once shining in the firmament, have now crumbled into dust—like Babylon—or exist only as a pale reflection of their former glory, like Rome?

All around us, signs point to the dawn of a major transition. The world we know is on the verge of disappearing. Within the next 15 years, the BRICS nations will have collectively surpassed all developed countries. 60% of jobs will be profoundly transformed by artificial intelligence. The IAEA estimates that we are approaching the peak of global fossil energy resources.

How can we avoid disappearing in the process?

The study of collapses is instructive in this regard. While advances in historical research—such as the works of Joseph Tainter and Jared Diamond (1)—provide valuable insights into the causes of collapse, their kinetics have oddly been underexplored.

Why? Likely due to the short span of human life. A stockbroker born in 1949 in the USA would have a hard time imagining anything other than chaotic yet constant financial growth. Had he been born just 20 years earlier, in 1929, he would have witnessed how catastrophic economic and stock market collapses can drive entire countries into despair, eventually leading to a world war that claimed 80 million lives. Human nature tends to forget the experiences of previous generations.

Yet, those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it. As the tectonic plates of global geopolitics shift, as we face one of the most powerful confluences of disruptions in recent decades, and while we are right in the heart of the maelstrom, how can we understand crises to better anticipate what’s coming and respond more effectively?

One of the best-documented models for collapse dynamics is Dmitry Orlov’s "5 Stages of Collapse." (2) Orlov, an analyst who studied the Soviet collapse, witnessed its violent final fall in the 1990s, characterized by a 40% drop in GDP, a 50% increase in mortality rates, a 40% decrease in birth rates, and a poverty rate exceeding 50% of the population. In 1992 alone, inflation reached a staggering 2,500%!

Orlov identifies five major phases in a collapse:

1. Financial Collapse: Trust in financial institutions erodes as debts and financial instruments lose value. Access to money and credit disappears, leading to a breakdown in economic activity and trade.
2. Commercial Collapse: Supply chains falter, markets disappear, and essential goods and services become unavailable. Businesses fail, causing widespread unemployment and shortages in critical resources like food and fuel.
3. Political Collapse: Government institutions become ineffective or collapse entirely. The state loses its ability to maintain law and order, leading to social unrest and power vacuums.
4. Social Collapse: Social structures disintegrate as communities break apart and people revert to survival-based behaviors. Family and community support networks weaken or disappear entirely.
5. Cultural Collapse: Shared values and belief systems vanish, leading to spiritual and moral disorientation. Survival of the fittest becomes the norm, and the struggle for life prevails everywhere.

What about the stages leading up to this collapse? What are the warning signs?

One might wonder if the financial collapse is merely the final stage of a long-established decay that has spread through all layers of social life. Soviet society in the 1990s, for example, was already pathocratic (3), long corroded. All the seeds of collapse were already there.

By applying Maslow's hierarchy of needs to collective social dynamics, one might consider a mirrored order of decay when looking at the pre-collapse stages:

1. Cultural Decay: The society’s culture erodes, with a loss of collective meaning. Shared values weaken, common narratives disintegrate, and eccentric cults and ways of life begin to appear.
2. Social Decay: Social bonds weaken. Mutual senses of identity and purpose disintegrate. The population fragments into opposing communities, and social unrest rises.
3. Political Decay: Political factions polarize. Elites and oligarchies lose sight of the common interest, prevarication grows, and competing factions multiply.
4. Commercial Decay: Commercial networks fragment. Supply and value chains are disrupted and begin to break down. The economy relies on debt and Ponzi schemes, masked by Potemkin window dressing.
5. Financial Decay: A financial crisis looms, potentially leading to the financial collapse described earlier. This last phase bridges the decay (pre-collapse) and the collapse stages.

Interestingly, this approach gives us a general model for assessing the dynamics or decline of a society at any point in time, from periods of rebound and growth to stages of decadence and eventual crisis.

 Where do we stand in this process?

While doomsayers have long predicted the collapse of the West, it still holds. Political and moral decline, supply chain disruptions, and rising protectionism due to geopolitical tensions—but sustained by debt—suggest we may be in the final stages before a potential financial collapse.

It feels like we’ve been in a "slow crash" for the past fifteen years, especially since 2008, when the blatant signs of decline and crisis emerged (4).

When will the extreme stage of collapse occur? Will it happen at all, or will we enter a new cycle after only a few passing upheavals? (5)

Such decompositions can last a long time. The fall of the Roman Empire took centuries. But in our accelerating world, it is likely that the timeline is now measured in years rather than decades. As we highlight in our models, risks are multiplying.

“What doesn’t kill us makes us stronger”: this phrase is the very essence of the hero's journey. The "Stages of Collapse" model is a useful guide and measurement tool in this regard.

As the current situation highlights, we are nearing a breaking point—a phase shift that will either lead to the dissolution of the system or its strengthening, much like Rome transitioned from Republic to Empire during a similar crisis.

It’s high time to prepare for this shift...

The next post in this 'Mastering Antifragility' series - THE WAY OF THE SURVIVOR - will be published next week. Click here to subscribe > 

'THE 5 STAGES OF COLLAPSE' is the third post of our 'Mastering Antifragility' series. The previous posts of this series, 'THE DOOMSDAY CLOCK' and 'THE 10th MAN' can be found here >   

^{(1) In "The Collapse of Complex Societies", Joseph Tainter argues that societies collapse due to the diminishing returns of increasing complexity. As societies grow, their need for resources and administration increases until the cost outweighs the benefits, leading to collapse. In "Collapse", Jared Diamond,examines how environmental degradation, and societal mismanagement lead to the downfall of civilizations. He emphasizes the role of ecological crises and unsustainable practices. Both authors highlight the fragility of civilizations when faced with internal and external pressures.}

^{(2) Dmitry Orlov is a Russian-American author and analyst, best known for his insights into societal collapse and his book « The 5 Stages of Collapse ». Based on his personal experience witnessing the fall of the Soviet Union (a vivid description can be found in his 'Post-Soviet Lessons for a Post-American Century' essay), his work explores how societies unravel under crisis pressures and what individuals can do to prepare for such events. It notably provides a framework for understanding systemic failures and how to survive them.}

^{(3) As we mentioned in "Escaping from Zombieland", the concept of “Political Ponerology” developed by Polish psychiatrist Andrzej Łobaczewski is a powerful framework for analyzing how societies can be progressively infiltrated and corrupted by psychopathic traits, leading to what Łobaczewski called “pathocracies.” Despite focusing on the rise and fall of totalitarian regimes—notably the Soviet Union—Łobaczewski’s work offers a robust framework for understanding today’s Western decline and crisis. Interestingly, his analysis, from a social psychopathy angle, aligns well with observations from Strauss-Howe’s and Turchin’s historical cycles.}

^{(4) As we detailed in « Deja Vu », « History’s Formula », and « Uncharted Territory », the Western world is at the confluence of generational cycle crisis times—a period typically marked by fragmented, individualistic, deregulated, short-termist, over-consuming societies that eventually break into violence, economic chaos, and often war—and of the disintegrative period of the secular cycle, which is typically marked by factionalization, corruption, high inequality, social instability, public bankruptcies, and endemic religious and civil conflicts. These crisis periods often culminate in depressions and wars, leading either to collapse or the rise of Caesarist regimes.}

^{(5) Fortunately, not all crises descend into the final stages of chaos. Some may stop at the financial, commercial, or political stages before descending further into anarchy. And there is always an opportunity to rebound. As the old saying goes,  "Hard times create strong men, and strong men create good times”.}